Global warming update?

Question

Since the uncovering of "climate gate" has there been a significant update as to the degree of global warming? Is there a big global warming committee that says our expected trend compared to our actual trend with human pollution. When I google search, all the references are pre "climate gate" (november 2009).

I'm hoping for references after 11/09

Answer 1

NOAA publishes monthly updates

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/



The IPCC is working on AR5 which is due to be published in 2014. (That's the U.N. committee that reviews all of the recent published studies to assess the science. AR = Assessment Report.



The University of Alabama Huntsville publishes monthly updates of the satellite record (the trend has ticked up just a small notch to 0.14 degrees per decade).

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt



The University of Colorado Boulder published monthly updates of sea level rise from satellites and gauges (holding steady at +3.1 millimeters per year)

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/



The NSIDC publishes monthly updates on the arctic ice extent (now at a record low)

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/



There have been scores of studies related to specific changes in the environment in the science journals.



The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) was formed by a noted physicist, noted climatologist and noted statistician with the object being to objectively and skeptically look at all the temperature tracking data, do it right, throw out the politics, correct the statistical biases and get to the truth. Once they completed their work, the report is that the body of data and the conclusions of climatologists was right all along: global warming is real and it is caused by human activity. They tested and eliminated the likelihood that's it's caused by nature.

http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/



The study of climate is ongoing. But all of science has moved past questioning whether human activity is changing the atmosphere and causing it to warm.

Answer 2

Baccheus has provided a very good answer with some excellent links so I’ll try to avoid duplicity.



Whilst scientific research and the study of climate change is ongoing, and has been for several decades, the basic concepts have remained unchanged for two centuries – ever since the physicist Simeon Denis Poisson first hypothesised that greenhouse gases led to global warming way back in 1811.



This fundamental tenet was scientifically documented in 1824 by Jean-Baptiste Fourier and has remained unchanged ever since. You can read his paper here: http://burgess1837.geologist-1011.mobi/



Of course, our understanding of climate change and all it’s intricacies, dynamics and peculiarities has advanced significantly since Poisson and Fourier’s days, but it’s not so much that things change, more that we’re adding to the existing knowledge-pool.



In this respect there has been no real updates to the degree of global warming – not of any real significance anyway.



If we go back to the 1970’s it was though that global warming could cause between 1°C and 7°C of warming by the year 2100. By the 1990’s the range had been narrowed to between 2°C and 6°C but still had a mean value of 4°C. In the last 10 or 20 years different models and techniques have provided different projections but they nearly all tend to centre on 3°C to 4°C of warming by 2100.



When making any projections there are any number of inherent uncertainties, not least of which are the anthropogenic influences. It’s probably fair to say that we’re better at predicting the natural variations than the human induced ones.



As an example, ten or more years ago few people would have envisaged the rapid expansion of the Indian and Chinese economies, certainly not on the scale that’s been witnessed. This has thrown something of a spanner into the works of the climate models (only a small spanner and something that is easily remedied).



What wasn’t foreseen is that the expanding economies would produce such vast amounts of pollutants, so much so that they’re visible from space as a brown haze known as the Asian Brown Cloud. This cloud contains significant amounts of cooling agents such as sulphur dioxide. And just as our pollution in the mid 20th century caused a phenomenon known as global dimming, we’re seeing this happen again.



The consequence of which is a decrease in the amount of heat energy reaching Earth from the Sun (it’s being reflected and absorbed by the pollutants before it reaches us). This dimming effect has slowed the rate of warming and will continue to attenuate the warming for as long as the pollutants remain in the atmosphere.



Here’s where it gets tricky to predict what will happen. The dimming agents only have an atmospheric residence period of about two years. If China and India stop producing them then they’ll quickly dissipate out of the atmosphere and allow the warming trend to continue unabated. The emissions are only likely to cease if China and India pass Clean Air Acts to regulate emissions, until such times we can expect global warming to continue but at a slower pace.



China has already held talks about passing such Acts, but who knows when they may come into effect. This is something we can only guess at and so there’s presently a degree of uncertainty about how much the planet will warm up in the short term (up to 10 years hence).



This is perhaps the main factor that has caused re-evaluations of short-term projected temperature increases in recent years, the longer-term projections however, remain unchanged.

Answer 3

What is Global Warming:

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further.



How is Today’s Warming Different from the Past?

Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. We know about past climates because of evidence left in tree rings, layers of ice in glaciers, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. For example, bubbles of air in glacial ice trap tiny samples of Earth’s atmosphere, giving scientists a history of greenhouse gases that stretches back more than 800,000 years. The chemical make-up of the ice provides clues to the average global temperature.



Is Current Warming Natural?

In Earth’s history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth’s orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on Earth’s surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global warming.



How Much More Will Earth Warm?

To further explore the causes and effects of global warming and to predict future warming, scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interactions of the oceans and atmosphere, and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural and human-induced. They comply with fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—and account for dozens of factors that influence Earth’s climate.



How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

The impact of increased surface temperatures is significant in itself. But global warming will have additional, far-reaching effects on the planet. Warming modifies rainfall patterns, amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts ice caps and glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases. Some of these changes are already occurring.

Answer 4

use the Google advanced search engine and limit the date to the past year.

if you want to avoid blogs and opinion sites you can also limit the search to domains sich as EDU (universities) and GOV (research like NASA and NOAA)



the 'Big committee' is the thousands of scientists who are still working on this. If you mean the IPCC, yes their updated report is coming later.



yes, it's still warming, even in the south pole, but according to Anthony Watts, it's because people are there : Regarding that rapid warming of 2C in the last 50 years, just remember that most weather stations in the Antarctic are near humanity, and humanity requires warmth to survive.



Never mind that satellite observations as well as melting ice indicate warming too.

Answer 5

Scientific reality does not depend on "Climategate" and other concocted crocs of anti-science crackpots.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/11/two-year-old-turkey/



U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 2010:

http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=1

“Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems.”

http://nationalacademies.org/morenews/20100716.html

“Choices made now about carbon dioxide emissions reductions will affect climate change impacts experienced not just over the next few decades but also in coming centuries and millennia…Because CO2 in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe.”

http://www.physics.fsu.edu/awards/NAS/

“The Academy membership is composed of approximately 2,100 members and 380 foreign associates, of whom nearly 200 have won Nobel Prizes. Members and foreign associates of the Academy are elected in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research; election to the Academy is considered one of the highest honors that can be accorded a scientist or engineer.”

Answer 6

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That is very likely because you have a habit of visiting denial sites and thus Google presents you similar results.

Answer 7

They got caught with their pants down. Now there is too much money and power at stake. Do you think they will just walk away from it. No they are a bunch of PR people not scientists so they will hunker down and let this blow over then come back with 'renewed' vigor. Just like Gleick. He got caught caught with his pants down. Admitted it. Apologized for it. Stepped down. And a mere three months later a committee absolved his staff, not him. And he was reinstalled with 'renewed' energy.



You have to realize the greenie movement needs every con artist they can muster. True science doe snot nor has no room for charlatans.

Answer 8

[Note: Warmists rule on this site and they hate the truth so this answer will be quickly hidden.]





There has NEVER been any man-made Global Warming, it's a HUGE political SCAM.



We know this because the advocates of man-made Global Warming have no empirical science to back their claim. And their advocacy movement has been mired in scandal since its beginning. Here are some things you should know:



1) The Earth has been both much warmer and much colder in the distant past, long before the industrial age. Climate is indeed changing, but it has always changed and probably always will. These are obviously natural cycles that man does not and cannot control.



2) Global Warming alarmists have been caught in one lie after another. Huge scandals have been continuously revealed since the early 1980’s when the campaign began. Some of these are listed below:



3) Al Gore’s movie "An Inconvenient Truth" was full of bald faced lies. Like the Polar Bears were drowning, or the Ice Caps were melting, or the oceans were rising --- all lies. In fact a court of England ruled the movie was so flawed that it could not be shown to school children without a disclaimer.



4) The ClimateGate affair exposed the utter corruption of the Warmist community with their exposed emails speaking of how they intended to “hide the decline” and how to manipulate data and the peer-review process in their favor.



5) Then there is the fact that the globe isn’t even warming anymore and the small amount of warming experienced from the 1900’s to 2001 timeframe was negligible and well within the envelope of normal.



6) During this same period of marginal warming, scientists also noticed that other planets in our solar system were warming. What do these planets have in common ? --- the Sun.



7) Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit, the Guru and High Priest of Global Warming himself admitted there has been no statistically significant warming. If anyone on the planet would have been aware of statistically significant warming it would have been Phil Jones and he admitted there has been none. (Game Over)



8) Warmist like Al Gore refuse to engage in any formal debate on the issue. That’s because on the few occasions Warmist have debated openly, they lose, and they lose big. Lord Monckton utterly destroys them time and time again.



9) Al Gore and other Warmists have stated clearly that they want to make CO2 the object of a global tax. CO2 is the perfect object for their revenue purposes because you literally cannot live without making CO2, after all, we exhale it. And current science has shown clearly that there is no correlation between the planet’s mean temperature and the concentration of CO2 in the air. Demonizing CO2 is all about the tax dollars, and that’s all its about.



See the scam for what it is and don’t believe any of it.



Polar Bears are doing fine:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/190805/20110802/polar-bear-global-warming-extinction-climate-change-research-world-wide-fund-wwf-geological-survey-s.htm



Perfect example of Warmist propaganda using polar bears to try and glean sympathy for their global scam.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLt0myO8XsA



Phil Jones admits NO statistically significant warming

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/15/global-warming-insignificant-years-admits-uks-climate-scientist/



35 major errors in Al Gore’s movie

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html



Court rules Al Gore’s movie unfit without disclaimer (11 major errors reviewed)

http://creation.com/al-gores-inconvenient-errors



Graph showing CO2 does NOT drive Temperature

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/correlation_last_decade_and_this_century_between_co2_and_global_temperature/



Warming on Mars -- and Jupiter, Pluto, Neptune

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=6544



Lord Monckton destroys Warmist in debate (Video)

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/no_wonder_the_warmists_hate_debate/





For the full story on the man-made Global Warming scam watch these:



The Great Global Warming Swindle

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov0WwtPcALE



Global Warming Doomsday Called Off

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3309910462407994295#



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Answer 9

No, its still a trend. COx2 is only a modeled expectation. There are no known relative values.



Quite a few indifferent contingencies left out those models by the way. Most are common sense, but the (ALARMIST/FANATICS) give that not as an acceptable postulation, but one(s) they will neither accept nor understand. "Buyer Beware"

Answer 10

According to "Inconvenience Truth" the world only had until 2008 to stop global warming. Now it is TOO LATE.



90% of humanity will die HORRIBLE deaths from floods, hurricanes, droughts, blizzards, tsunamis and earthquakes.



Only the Lear jet people like Michael Moore and Al Gore will survive the coming climate APOCALYPSE in their underground mansions.

Answer 11

The IPCC and its band of renegade scientists are working on more proof that man-made CO2 is "the" driving force and affecting the climate. They keep standing by this claim and am sure someone here will come up with something.



They (IPCC) did admit back in the early 2000s that "In climate research and modelling, that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.". Since then I haven't heard of any catastrophies forth-coming.



Please review the latest HadCrut & NASA temperature readings.



Trevor's rant has a conclusion: They don't know what the degree of global warming is.