The claim of “no warming for 17 years” is a misnomer and is one that’s perpetuated by those with insufficient knowledge of climatic systems to determine whether it’s valid or even if it’s of significance.
The reality is that the rate by which the world has warmed over the last 17 years has slowed down, it’s now about half that of 20 or so years ago.
To claim that global warming has stopped requires taking those 17 years in isolation and applying a linear trend to the data. This is not how climate science works.
For a start, nothing should be inferred using anything less than 30 years worth of data, this is because there are too many short-term variables in the climatic systems. By analysing long-term data the variables are smoothed and if needs be they can be normalised and the data homogenised.
Furthermore, the claim that global warming has stopped is a completely fallacious one because it conveniently excludes any explanation as to why warming has slowed. Despite the fact that this claim has been made repeatedly, have you ever seen those making the claim offer any kind of explanation. You won’t have done, and the reason is that they don’t want you to know why. To provide an honest explanation deflates the claim that global warming has stopped.
The booming Asian economies are largely unregulated when it comes to the emission of pollutants and the result is that our atmosphere is now becoming contaminated with pollutants that we banned decades ago. Amongst these are numerous sulphate aerosols including sulphur dioxide.
Whilst the greenhouse gases cause warming by trapping heat within the atmosphere, sulphur dioxide causes cooling by reflecting photons back out into space. The more of this gas there is in the atmosphere the less heat energy from the Sun reaches Earth’s surface.
Similarly, emissions of black particulate matter are accumulating in the atmosphere, these absorb solar energy and are further reducing the amount that makes it through the atmosphere.
This absorption and reflection of incoming solar energy is causing what’s known as dimming and it’s this dimming that makes it appear that global warming has slowed. But it’s not slowed, it’s actually speeded up. The difference is that there’s now a cooling component that’s masking some of the warming.
China and India have both stated their intentions to pass Clean Air Acts and this would significantly reduce the level of these dimming emissions. When that happens, levels of the dimming materials will fall rapidly, BPM only remains in the atmosphere for a few months, sulphates reside for two to three years. Once they’ve dissipated out, warming will return, and if things don’t change then it will be more pronounced than ever.