Question:
Considering the Dunning-Kruger Effect,how competent do you believe you are to assess the global warming debate?
1970-01-01 00:00:00 UTC
Considering the Dunning-Kruger Effect,how competent do you believe you are to assess the global warming debate?
Eighteen answers:
david b
2010-02-18 22:36:54 UTC
Another great quote is:



"The greatest argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."



- Sir Winston Churchill



The problem is that the United States and most of the European nations are forms of democracy. Regardless of whether or not the populace (including myself) are capable of assessing the risks of climate change they are ultimately at the helm.



I will say though, those who take part regularly in this forum, be the denier or proponent, are probably far more informed on global warming issues than the normal everyday average joe.



Anyways to answer your question, I don't feel particularly qualified to make definitive statements about the more physical aspects of climate science, although as a student of biology I do feel quite qualified to comment on the impacts climate change will have of life, most especially plants and forests.
Walaka F
2010-02-18 22:35:17 UTC
Well Bertrand was no slouch when it came to thinking. This is why the IPCC and climate scientists continually qualify their statements with levels of certainty etc. They understand their levels of certainty and the level of remaining doubt.



AGW deniers just make bold assertions with out qualification and without verifiable data.



Do I think I know all there is to know about any topic? Most certainly not. But with a very broad education including a better than average grasp of matters scientific/mathematical a relatively critical mind, being unwilling to take things at face value [wanting to delve to check things out myself] I think I have a better than average capacity to sort fact from fiction in the current AGW discussions.



I'm always keen to listen and consider new evidence for and against, but, it needs to be genuine, not just opinion and it needs to be related, and verifiable. Sadly a lot of what is presented as evidence on both sides is not relevant, is uncertain, not directly linked or otherwise fails the mark of being useful.



So far more I have seen very little evidence that stacks up from the denier's camp.
Benjamin
2010-02-19 07:39:37 UTC
I graduated from college in 1998 with a degree in history and with minor concentrations in chemistry and physics. I now work as a nurse. I know enough to know that my scientific understanding of climatology is very limited.



I'm also smart enough to read the scientific arguments, blogs written by deniers, articles by conservative think tanks, op-ed pieces from tabloids and articles from peer-reviewed scientific literature. I know that some arguments are more logical than others, and some are based on a complete misunderstanding of the science. If I'm not understanding some particular piece of information, I know when to ask for clarification.
Ottawa Mike
2010-02-18 23:10:54 UTC
“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”

— Bertrand Russell



This is a great quote. When it comes to man made global warming, I am full of doubt.
pegminer
2010-02-19 09:38:57 UTC
There's certainly a lot more that I don't know that I do. Certain areas of the debate I feel pretty competent in, others I don't. I defer to others on most discussions of paleoclimatology, and I don't have a strong opinion on the correctness of the "hockey stick." I see it as one more piece of evidence, but certainly not the defining one. Having seen enough geology done, I take paleo-reconstructions of any sort with a grain of salt and let others argue their merits. There's more than enough that I do understand about the physics of the global warming process to not worry too much about the details of what the temperatures were thousands of years ago. Many of the conclusions from physics are simply inescapable. I feel that I am more competent than most to talk about hurricanes and global warming. As for the increase in strong storms that's been found in studies by Emanuel and Curry and Webster, I find the evidence is suggestive but hardly conclusive. We don't have in situ measurements of most storms, and for those storms that we do they are far from continous measurements, so the "best track" data so many studies rely on (the ones I mention above as well as Ryan Maue's) is somewhat suspect. Climate models are only beginning to have enough resolution to understand what will happen with future tropical cyclones. That being said, there is a well-known connection between storm strength and sea surface temperature, so even if we are unsure what will happen with wind shear in the future, it's certain that the range of storms will increase, particularly on areas like the North American west coast.



I feel that I have a much better understanding of meteorology than most, having been studying for about 40 years, both formally and informally. I know enough about how science and scientists work to read the UEA emails and see that there was no smoking gun or any real evidence falsified data at all. I know enough about atmospheric data sets to know that they HAVE to be filtered and re-gridded etc. You need to think carefully about what you're doing and not do things blindly, but to only use "raw" data (if it is even possible) is a recipe for disaster.



What my knowledge gives me more than anything is the ability to recognize people that DON'T know what they're saying or who use faulty logic. There are deniers on here who I know understand that they are using faulty logic, but who also don't care because they feel so strongly about the politics of global warming mitigation that they will say anything to raise doubt.



I know enough to know that we are running a huge experiment on the Earth and that no one really knows what is going to happen. I know enough to understand that we are taking huge risks by proceeding down the current path. The models suggest that what will happen may cause huge problems--I certainly don't have the knowledge or confidence to dispute that, and I don't think the deniers do either.
MTRstudent
2010-02-19 02:06:24 UTC
Better than average for the population*, worse than most published scientists in a related field.









*and this because I've taken an interest and most others haven't. I'm now signed up to do a PhD in a related field so hopefully I'll improve.
atomic fireball
2010-02-22 10:49:28 UTC
I understand your point, but don't necessarily agree with it. If you are using an "effect" with a somewhat arcane scientific sounding name to argue that one has to be a "specialist" to understand the global warming debate, you are engaging in intellectual snobbery. What is your definition of "specialist', anyway? Are you the final arbiter of who is qualified to refer to themselves thusly, and who is not? What are YOUR qualifications for so doing?



Is it possible that there are those who may have not even graduated from a university, or perhaps even high school, who could know as much about the underlying issues in the global warming debate as someone who is "well known" in academic circles? Please. Spare me the arrogance.



I live in Connecticut, and whenever I drive through Yale's campus in New Haven, I'm amazed at how many Yale students are not even capable of crossing a busy street safely. Yet, the fact that they can call themselves "Yale graduates" after a few years almost immediately guarantees them a high paying, perhaps high status job whether they're qualified or not. Just look at our last President who "graduated" from Yale. Need I say more?



BTW, sometimes "specialists" are not necessarily the most qualified individuals to assess the underlying issues in a debate such as that involving global warming. There are so many other factors which play a part in the global warming debate, such as economics, human psychology, cultural anthropology and a plethora of others I could think of if I have more time.



If our environment can loosely be considered part of "nature", then I think it bears remembering that the Native Americans, who understood a lot more about nature from first hand experience than do most modern Americans, even scientists perhaps, would be the first to remind us that nature is "interconnected".



Specialists are not always as adept at understanding issues outside of their specialties as others, who might even be termed "laymen", (or perhaps I should say lay"people" to be more PC.) Indeed, logic would suggest that the more specialized one's knowledge is, the more susceptible is one to "missing the forest for the trees".



Finally, I find it hard to believe that a "Renaissance Man" (and therefore by definition a "non-specialist") such as Leonardo da Vinci, would have had an inability to understand at least as much about the global warming controversy as the "specialists" in whose competence you seem to have such unwavering faith.
Facts Matter
2010-02-19 16:24:48 UTC
We have some very nice examples in the answers to this question, not all of which show an understanding of what the question is about.



Unfortunately, those who exhibit the Dunning-Kruger effect will of necessity be completely unaware of the fact.



Since you ask me, I have professional knowledge of chemistry and some professional acquaintance with geology, am widely read in related sciences, understand the operation of science in general and the peer review system and scientific debate and controversy in particular, and from having dealt with the Creationist literature feel well-qualified to identify bait-and-switch, faked controversy, and cut-and-paste bogus arguments.



I have also been following the science in Science and Nature for some 30 years, and have changed my position in the light of the evidence.



So I consider myself more competent than most on this site, although there are certainly others here more competent than me.



I aim to limit my comments to what I know about or can find out about by referring to sources that I am competent to evaluate, including, very interestingly, the actual texts of what denialists cite.
2010-02-19 01:50:42 UTC
Lots of people believe in God but they can't read the Bible, what's your point?
2010-02-19 00:07:26 UTC
############################

“The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”

— Bertrand Russell



This is a great quote. When it comes to man made global warming, I am full of doubt.

#######################



From your reasoning, it is the people who are full of doubt as to whether thecEarth is nin-flat who are being reasonable in the flat Earth controversy.



Furthermore, applying Russell's logic we arrive at a paradox--from his logic, people who are so certain that there is reason for doubt are the unreasonable people. Get it--if you are so certain that you should not be certain, then you are certain of something. Too bad the term "Russell's Paradox" is taken.
Dana1981
2010-02-19 08:56:49 UTC
I'm competent enough to know that humans are causing global warming and there's a signfiicant probability the results will be catastrophic if we continue in a business as usual scenario.



I've spent a lot of time researching the subject, and Dunning-Kruger has held true. The more I learn, the more I realize I don't know.



However, there's a big difference between saying 'I/we don't know very much, therefore we should just keep doing what we're doing' and saying 'I/we don't know very much, therefore we should take precautions to avoid a potentially catastrophic scenario'.



I've also often referenced Dunning-Kruger on this site. Deniers who know virtually nothing about basic climate science vastly overestimate their understanding of the subject. More importantly, they disregard the conclusions of scientists who know vastly more than them about the subject.

https://answersrip.com/question/index?qid=20090925105432AAnTtq5
novella
2016-05-31 14:17:31 UTC
Is the entire global warming debate just another example of the Dunning-Kruger effect? Yes. there is no real evidence against AGW, or it would be all over the papers. I think dana's 17 thumbs down show you hit a nerve with this question!
2010-02-22 13:42:30 UTC
.

My point exactly.

.

"Scepticism," as the late Jon Dewey once observed, "is the mark and even the pose of the educated mind."



If we are unsure of something, then the intelligent thing to do is nothing, until we have made sure that we fully understand not just that which we are examining but also the impacts of what we do regarding it.



I do not believe there is any climate scientist who would claim that we have a full understanding of how our climate works, yet you have people like James Hansen advocating massively expensive courses of action based on incomplete knowledge.



So, yes, I am glad to see that you have thought about this one, and realised that scepticism is the healthy default position.

.
bravozulu
2010-02-18 23:42:22 UTC
I think of it as the first year science student that thinks he understands the nature of the universe. People who are spoon fed "facts" tend to be arrogant. They think they know but they have no understanding of what their belief is actually based on. That is the problem with agenda driven politics and religion. I am old enough, educated and wise enough to see that the vast majority of evidence is completely contrived and the science suggesting catastrophic warming is pathetically weak. Climate is too complex to model as is demonstrated by the real world and their inability to model it. It is perfectly obvious that they have an agenda and they are following it with predictable actions and thus not credible conclusions. They are also not credible because they are seriously logically flawed. The only doubt I have is if it has no measurable effect at all or only very minor effects. The predictions of doom have zero credibility and I worry about that about as much as I worry about a comet striking the Earth.
2010-02-22 10:14:15 UTC
It depends who the "Stupid" are. If by the intelligent the statement meant the ruling powers, then the whole statement is shot to pieces.
JcL
2010-02-19 09:49:06 UTC
The "data", the "science" was based on was some "scientists" tweaking numbers and making up theories to keep their jobs. Al Gore's movie was proved in court to be riddled with errors, the Russians said the "data" from Russian stations was manipulated, and the weather stations in China were moved around to get higher numbers. This was junk science when it was invented by IPCC in 1995, and now we have even more proof. They scientist who invented the satellite sensors (F Singer) even said the temp readings from satellites were not down properly.)



The debate is over, Global Warming was a lie. As Jon Stewart said, "Poor Al Gore. Global warming completely debunked via the very Internet you invented. OH, the irony." Even the commies agree.



Links to support my allegations:

==========

UK High Court rules “Inconvenient Truth” contained “Nine Key Scientific” errors?”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthne…



Climategate emails document researchers “hiding data,“”adding temps,”their hate for dissenters. They lied to us & adjusted "data."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesd…



Jan 2010, ICE AGE, "Arctic sea ice increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26%, since 2007!!!!!! WHAT!!!! WHERE HAS THIS DATA BEEN??? The coming Ice Age!! They lied to us!!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/a…



Swiss Scientists say Sunlight melted glaciers, not global warming.

http://www.physorg.com/news180024364.htm…



RUSSIANS CONFIRM UK scientists MANIPULATED DATA to exaggerate global warming

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesd…



Moving weather stations in China!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20…
2010-02-22 11:31:48 UTC
Not competent at all.
2010-02-19 06:01:24 UTC
The quote illustrates that he was a skeptic and thus believed in the skeptical scientific method instead of a liberal believer who believes in the religious peer review system.





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

http://www.examiner.com/x-4648-Atlanta-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d21-Sun-spot-cycle-impacting-global-warming-and-cooling


This content was originally posted on Y! Answers, a Q&A website that shut down in 2021.
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