Global Warming was invented to sell cars. I've heard many people say that we need to get away from fossil fuels because it’s harming the environment. Now I agree we need to get away from fossil fuels, but not because some say it’s causing the environment to get warmer.
I especially love the people who drive the hybrid cars and think they are doing their part. It’s very satisfying to inform them the battery inside most hybrids is a nickel based battery which is mined using sulfide mining, which creates sulfuric acid when exposed to water and oxygen. That, in turn, contaminates rivers, lakes and groundwater so severely that it actually creates dead zones around the mine. I digress.
First of all the belief that we are the cause of climate change is premature at best. We are basing this belief solely off the data received from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and if the information they provided was accurate and consistent than the belief would be fairly well founded.
The problem with GCMs is the uncertainties in the physics that informs the GCMs. As it turns out uncertainties in the energetic responses of Earth climate systems are more than 10 times larger than the entire energetic effect of increased CO2. So if the uncertainty is larger than the effect, the effect itself becomes moot no?
Also when you look at a reliable figure that shows the global temperatures in the future take a look at the fine print, many times it will say “50-70% of the time the temperature will fall in that shaded area. So 50-40% of the time the temperature won’t even be what they think it will be or even close to what GCM predicts. When those figures get out to the public 90% of the time they don’t even have the shaded region anymore instead they narrow it down to the average and make it a defined line giving the impression that temperatures are rising. Now you have a figure that’s 99% inaccurate.
Another interesting fact is not all GCM’s predict the same thing. In fact the majority of people don’t even know about any GCM aside from the Hadley and the Canadian models, which happen to agree on temperature getting warm. They don’t agree on anything else aside from that. Hadley predicts that rain will decrease and water levels will fall, while the Canadian model depicts massive rains and floods. Other GCMs predict the temperature will fall or not rise at all.
Lets think of it this way, suppose I had a computer model of common arithmetic that said 2+2=5±0.1. Every time I ran the model, there was a 68% chance that the result of 2+2 would be within 0.1 unit of 5. My shaded region would be ±0.1 unit wide. If 40 research groups had 40 slightly different computer models of arithmetic that gave similar results, we could all congratulate ourselves on a consensus. Suppose that after much work, we improved our models so that they have 2+2=5±0.001. We could then claim our models were 10 times better than before. But they’d all be exactly as wrong as before, because with exact arithmetic proves that 2+2=4. This is the critical difference between precision and accuracy.
GCM’s are about imprecision and not accuracy, we can not base assumptions upon them until they are accurate, which they are not.