How surprised are you by the record low in the extent of arctic sea ice?

Question

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

... and the trend?

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

What are your thoughts?

Answer 1

Caliservative: The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has been in a negative or median phase since 1998



http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest



And the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) has been in it's positive phase since roughly 1995



http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.sm.long.data



It is thought that these oceanic oscillations correlate with oen another.



http://lightning.sbs.ohio-state.edu/geog8901/paper/amo_dOrgeville2007.pdf



Sagebrush: Why continue this charade? The Earth has not been 'cooling since 1998'. What has happened since 1998 is the PDO has gone into it's negative phase after the rather intense El Nino of 1997/98. This does not mean the Earth is cooling. What it does mean is that the energy is being redistributed elsewhere. I have continued trying to explain this to you but you can't grasp this simple concept. The PDO redistributes heat it does not make it magically disappear as you would have everyone believe and, when the PDO goes back into it's positive phase, that redistributed energy will become present in the atmosphere once again.



You are, however, basing your statement that the planet has been cooling since 1998 based on satellite data. Satellite data measures the lower troposphere. Surface measurements show 2005 and 2010 to be the warmest as they only measure temperature at the surface. Neither one measures ocean heat content. To see that we have to look here: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/



Do you see a decline since 1998? No. I see a peak at 2003 and then a greater peak at 2011 and that is just down to 700m. If we go further, down to 2000m, there is absolutely no slowdown at all. This is because the heat is being redistributed along with the currents. When the energy comes to the surface, or in the upper 700m, that energy will begin heating the atmosphere once again. I don't know how many times I'm going to have to continue explaining this to you. ENSO, AMO, PDO, and other oceanic oscillations REDISTRIBUTE heat they don't make it disappear. Understand?



To view the planetary cooling or warming we have to take all sections of it into account. We can also measure the energy balance of the planet and compare he energy input and energy output. Viewing this we can see how much more energy is increasingly being retained by the planet. Once it is in the system it is going to be used in the system regardless of where it is.

Answer 2

In May it was within seasonal norms, very close to the average over since 1979. What do you think happened since then? A sudden release of CO2?



I realize they didn't have good satellite imagery before that but it also happens to correspond with the time when we began warming in earnest. I don't believe the sophistry that the cooling of the 70s was due to aerosols. It was more likely simply a natural minor cooling trend. I think the evidence suggests that storms and other factors including temperature resulted in a relatively low sea ice year in the Arctic but it is only the Arctic. As Cali.. pointed out, the Antarctic isn't cooperating with the dire predictions. I'm not surprised by low sea ice and I am not surprised that some like Chem Flunky can't seem to distinquish between the meaning of warming and human caused warming.

Answer 3

I'm completely surprised. The last record low in 2007 had many experts predicting a total ice free summer in the Arctic by now. For there to be over 3M km2 of ice this summer is therefore shocking.



However, I've ditched those experts and now have more thoroughly researched who is a true expert in these matters. Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge (that's a good school right?) is my expert now predicts ice free summers by 2015-16: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice



Let's hope for no more surprises. I can't handle the emotional roller coaster of it all.

Answer 4

Jeff M: The earth has been cooling since 1998. Go figure. Must not have any connection.



I am not at all surprised. The scientists who study that don't know the difference between Ice, Snow, Slush and water. They put this chart out a while back. The land temperature section colored white or light gray was -1.7 degrees C. Even Baccy Baby had to admit it was confusing. I doesn't bode well for the sanity of those scientists.



Come on fellows, is it really water? Until these ardent students of the Arctic get their act together we probably will never know for sure.

Answer 5

This is much ado about nothing. It's 100% normal for the Arctic Ice Extent to lose more than half of it's ice EVERY YEAR. We are currently at the time of year when the amount of ice is at it's lowest.



And boy-oh-boy are the media and Warmists ever taking advantage of that fact.



Arctic Ice Extent, NORSEX

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png



You can already see a sharp rise in the trend and within a couple of weeks the Warmist aren't going to have anything to screech about.



Everybody on this board agrees the planet has experienced a little warming, so why on Earth would we NOT expect less ice?



This is really a focus on the frivolous.



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Answer 6

Not a bit surprised, it is all part of the trend to an ice-free Arctic promised by 2013.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/arctic-ice-free-by-2013.html



Not long to go now!

Answer 7

I am not surprised, and my thoughts are that anyone who doesn't recognize melting sea ice as a sign and likely consequence of warming, is an idiot...



edit: to clarify, I'm talking about a general trend of sea ice melting, not necessarily a specific instance...

Answer 8

None. The pacific and atlantic oscillations have been in a positive phase for the last 30 years or so. The Pacific recently went negative (cold) and the Atlantic is expected to do so soon.



@Chem F--

Dang, CF... you sure packed a lot into that one...

intellectual attribution bias

false cause fallacy

single cause fallacy

ad hominem fallacy

...and, with logic like that, you wonder why some of us see the CAGW movement as 'quasi-religious'...