Is it true that sea level is falling?

Question

Is it true that sea level is falling? If so, where has all the water gone? It can't just disappear surely?

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

Answer 1

The changes in sea level are so small that they are less than the margin of error for the measuring devices.

One thing is for sure. The doom and gloom prediction of sea level rise do to global warming haven't come true. If they had the low parts of New York City would be underwater today and clearly they are not.

Answer 2

Let's say that graph is legit, what sea level fall are you talking about? You mean that little bit at the end over a few months period? You honestly believe that has any significance on the overall rise in sea level? I think the problem here is your failure to understand what you're seeing. You can't make an assumption like sea level is falling just because of a very short period where it may have dropped a few millimeters, when there is up and down variability the entire time due to seasonal change, and look at the end of that graph... It's rising again! Just a bad argument.

Answer 3

Flossie,



To answer your question it needs to be framed within a timescale. If we look at a short time-scale, one of a matter of months, then sea-levels are falling; but if we extend that to a period of years then sea-levels are rising.



I suspect that gist of your question relates to the drop in sea-levels that have been observed in the last few months, that being the case then it is true that sea-levels are falling.



Knowing that sea-levels are rising or falling is meaningless unless we know why. And in the case of the recent drop, we do know why, it’s been caused by oscillations in the Southern Pacific.



These oscillations, collectively known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) have three phases – positive, neutral and negative. The positive phase is associated with El Nino conditions whilst the negative phase corresponds to the La Nina conditions.



Look back at the graph you linked to and note where the sharpest rise in sea-levels is. It coincides with the strongest El Nino event ever recorded and the one that led to exceptionally warm global temperatures in 1998. During El Nino episodes the average global temperature goes up and rainfall goes down, the reverse is true during La Nina episodes.



In July 2010 we entered a strong La Nina episode, such an event cools the global climate and leads to increased rainfall. It’s right at this point that the average sea-level begins to fall. Partly because the cooling climate slows the rate of thermal expansion of the seas and oceans but much more significantly, because immense amounts of water are transferred from the oceans to the land.



Think back to summer of last year, right at the point when sea-levels began falling we have the devastating floods in Asia, so widespread were these floods that there’s still 20 million people who are homeless as a result of them.



These floods weren’t alone. In the last 12 to 18 months there has been a record number of flood events all around the world. I think it’s true to say that there hasn’t been one day since the summer of 2010 when there haven’t been fatal floods somewhere in the world, and that’s never happened before.



With La Nina dumping significantly more precipitation on land there is a corresponding fall in global sea-levels. In time of course, this water makes it’s way back into the seas and oceans, but this is a slow process and one which is compensated for by an accelerated hydrological cycle.



Look again at your graph and notice how the fall in sea-levels has levelled off in the last few months, this corresponds with the ending of the recent La Nina episode and a return to neutral ENSO conditions. In fact, if you were to plot the strength of ENSO against the change in sea levels you’d see a strong correlation between the two (should you wish to do so then download the Oceanic Nino Index data together with the data from the page you linked to).



The question now is what’s going to happen in the next few months. ENSO never remains in the neutral phase for long and it’s not unusual, having exited one La Nina episode, to dip back into another. Should that happen then it’s possible there will be a further slight drop in sea-levels. On the other hand, if we enter an El Nino phase, then we’ll see a very rapid rise in sea levels – the 5mm drop in the last year or so will quickly be compensated for and the next 12 months of the graph will look similar to the rise seen in 1997.



So, if in the next year or so we see a rapid rise in sea-levels (more than 6.4mm) and anyone claims this is caused by global warming, you can tell them that the majority of the rise (more than 3.2mm of it) is caused due to a slow down of the hydrological cycle and percolation of water through the ground returning to the seas caused by a switching from La Nina to El Nino conditions.



A shorter answer would have been to say that sea-levels are falling now but it’s a predictable temporary thing.

Answer 4

Sea levels have fallen in the last few years. However the consequence of a warming sea is thermal expansion. There is no way to get around this. The sea levels have dropped specifically because of the ENSO cycle.



http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/nasa-satellites-detect-pothole-road-higher-seas



Note that measurements from GRACE have substantiated their claims. As you can see, recently sea levels have begun climbing again from it's low during the past 2 years. This is right in the graph on the page you linked.



Edit: And Flossie - Are you one of those people that believe the planet is currently cooling? Thermal expansion is a consequence of any type of warming. If, as has been stated, most everyone realizes the planet is warming why are you arguing this point? If you believe the planet is warming then you also accept that the trend in sea level height is increasing.

Answer 5

Yes, over the past year or so that appears to be true. However there is no indication that the trend will continue over decadal long time scales. In fact, the graph you link to shows the curve concave upward, so if that continues it will soon be increasing again.



It will be interesting to see what happens to both global mean temperature and sea level when we get the next strong El Nino.

Answer 6

It is mind boggling to me how unscientific and desperate alarmists are. Spyky suggests that it isn't falling yet then says we have to wait a few years. At least he seems to have a glimmer of a hint that it is all about time interval. It has apparently fallen in the last few years probably due to cooling based on the Satellite data I read about.



It has risen in the last 15 thousand years as the continental glaciers in the last ice age melted.



The warmest time since then was about 7 thousand years ago, give or take a thousand in the Holocene Optimum. The climate has generally cooled since then which would tend to lower sea levels but that lowering is very minor relative to the major changes that happened right after the major melting and receding of the continental glaciers. There have been a few minor warm periods since then such as the one a thousand years ago and the one we are in. In warm times the sea level may rise slightly and in cooler times it falls. Satellite technology came about only in a moderate warming period and it isn't too surprising that the sea level may have risen slightly. Without satellite data, it is difficult to tell if the sea is rising or falling.



Geologists understand that land isn't as stable as some people seem to think and it may rise or fall and this is particularly true near the ocean. It is difficult to have much certainty or much precision when measuring sea level rise before satellites. One place may have apparent rise and another may have apparent lowering. As is the case with many things, Alarmists try to fool the ignorant and suggest that sea levels are static. They never have been. They are always rising or falling.

Answer 7

The most recent data release showed a light decrease just as others had shown slight increases. There is NOT a good explaination for it at this time. No, it did NOT disappear. The water went somewhere, or landmasses may have shifted due to the tectonic activity etc...



One explaination, that I find laughable, is rainfall increased enough (yes you called it, global warming) to account for a great deal more water being on our landmasses thus not in the oceans.

Answer 8

No Sea level is not falling. The Average trend is sea level rise and this is the important thing. The few points at the end of the graph that show a slight fall are still much higher than the start of the graph and higher than in 2009.



If the sea levels consistently fall over a period of many years then you can claim sea levels are falling until this happens they are on average rising. What you are doing is similar to going out on a day in the middle of June and it is sunny so you say it is sunny all year round.

Answer 9

Well, if a lot of water evaporates out of the ocean, and gets deposited on mountain tops or permanent ice pack... yes the level can fall.



And just like rising... it won't go down by an amount that we need to worry about.

Answer 10

The graph you link to shows a very strong upward trend in sea level. They're even nice enough to included the slope of the regression through all of the data points (+3.2 mm/year).



Surely you must be mistaken in asking a question about falling sea levels.



Even if you were to allow your political dogmatism to mask the obvious upward linear trend and only focus on the last little flat portion you would draw the conclusion that sea levels are actually steady. But then you would have to rely 100% on the assumption that measurements of sea level are accurate at that resolution. This would basically contradict each and everyone one of you brethren who've posted an answer to this question who claim (or have claimed in the past) that sea level can't be measured that accurately.



My guess is you are simply full of crap, distort reality to fit your world view and/or enjoy espousing B.S..



@Peter - the margin of error is +/- 0.4 mm and the slope is 3.2 mm/year you might want to check your math because you claim smells of elephant shite.



@Maxx - they add 0.3 mm/year- that's your argument? Adding 0.3mm/year to a 3.2mm/year trend matters? Can't see the forest for all them trees eh?

Answer 11

main reason is global warming .

From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991–2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007. The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole. As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.[citation needed] It is likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement)that anthropogenic forcing contributed to the general warming observed in the upper several hundred metres of the ocean during the latter half of the 20th century.

Answer 12

Falling? No. Why don't you read your own link? It explains that the small drop last year was due to ENSO-related precipitation shifts, with massive amounts of rain falling over land rather than ocean as measured by GRACE. The relevant trend -- i.e. long-term -- still very much shows rising sea levels.



This obsession with the *very* short-term is bordering on bizarre.

Answer 13

actually the sea level rise is hiding with the missing heat at the bottom of the ocean

Answer 14

No,the sea level is increasing.The water is eating the land.In the next 30 or more years the land will be small to accompany all the people in it.

Answer 15

The graph you linked is from the University of Colorado and their data is just plain fraud in my opinion.



The University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group is Under Fire for 'Adjusted' Sea-Level Data, the group is adding 0.3 mm per year to the actual data. That’s why their graph skyrocket’s upward even though a graph of the ACTUAL data will yield a downward slope showing a decline in sea level over the last decade.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/17/research-center-under-fire-for-adjusted-sea-level-data/



Sea levels are dropping according to measurments by the Envisat satellite.



The latest figures for sea levels were posted 11 Oct. 2011 in an article at "Real Science" by Steven Goddard. The article states:



"Sea Level Lowest In Almost A Decade

Posted on October 11, 2011 by Steven Goddard



Envisat was launched by the EU in 2002, and is the largest and most sophisticated Earth monitoring satellite. It shows that the four lowest sea level readings all occurred in 2011. The most recent reading was fourth lowest on record, out of 321 measurements."



http://www.real-science.com/sea-level-lowest-decade



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Ian - your third posted link, to the 21Stcentury report is fantastic !! It clearly shows the enormity of the fraud concerning sea levels. On page 18 of the pdf report it compares the raw data to the "corrected" data. In 2008 it shows that there was about 10 MM in difference between the raw data and the "corrected" data and of course that fraud continues at the University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group today.



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Answer 16

not at all

global warning

Answer 17

The True Believers will tell you that sea levels were flat (+/-0.5mm) for thousands of years and all of a sudden started rising rapidly in 1970....just like a .... well let's say hockey stick.



Just ignore most studies done on tide gauges

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2011/07/22/3276012.htm

http://www.enctoday.com/articles/coastal-101045-nbsj-sea-symposium.html

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf



And just believe our prophet, Michael Mann

http://www.science20.com/news_articles/sea_levels_are_rising_and_temperature_blame-80161

Answer 18

It appears you have your monitor upside down, Flossie.



Here's a better-to-comprehend graph for you (providing you are not colour blind):



http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/map-sea-level-trends

Answer 19

I think it is rising, that has been proven so that is false.

Answer 20

global wamring

Answer 21

global warming is a scam that's why several thousand scientist have launched lawsuits against Al Gore

Answer 22

No.