Can someone find me a reference to computer models predicting this cooling before it actually happened?

Question

From a BBC report, quoting the WMO, from 2008 (remember those balmy, hot days of 2008?):

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""The world in 2008 has been cooler than at any time since the turn of the century, scientists say.
Cooling La Nina conditions in the Pacific brought temperatures down to levels last seen in the year 2000.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes that temperatures remained about 0.3C above the 1961-1990 average.

Computer models suggest that natural cycles may cool the Earth's surface in the next few years, masking the warming impact of rising greenhouse gas levels.

One recent analysis suggested there may be no warming for about the next decade, though other scientists dispute the conclusion.

What is beyond dispute is that 2008 saw temperatures a shade below preceding years.""
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I don't know about the "beyond dispute" bit - they obviously haven't talked to the warmists on YA for starters. But here's my question:

The report refers to the WMO "computer models" which suggest that this is a natural cycle of cooling which is simply masking the effects of global warming. Can someone please find me a reference from before 2000 that predicted this "natural cycle" of cooling?

Because if it's natural, then surely they could of predicted it. In fact, surely they did predict it, if their models are so accurate. Otherwise, how can we take their predictions for fifty years away, when five or ten years seems to be too much.

Source for report:

""This year is coolest since 2000""
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7786060.stm
.

Answer 1

tl,dr? The answer is yes.





IPCC 2001, 19 projections from a given start point for 1.1%/yr increase in CO2:

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/348.htm

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig9-3.htm



Range over a decade appears to be something like under 0.2C/decade, with substantial range. Many models showed the type of temperature record we observed.



(IPCC 2001 is useful because it collates all the results from the last report's deadline to its deadline, so likely includes pre-2000 results).





Ensembles are used because many parts of climate have positive Lyapunov exponents, and tend to diverge from small differences in initial conditions (ie, they're 'chaotic'). A sensible way of dealing with this is to make many runs based on small changes in assumptions and initial conditions and to get a statistical output.



Fortunately, some parts appear chaotic, but are in fact bounded (eg we may not be able to predict El Nino index in any given year, but we know it's almost certainly going to fall somewhere between +3 and -3), or aren't actually chaotic in some instances because they're tied to another part of the climate (eg tropical wind systems are strongly coupled to sea surface temperatures)



Even the 'hottest' running model displays 'flat' temperatures from yrs 30-40. It's a bit messy to look at, but all of them you can see clearly do display such occurrences.





RC were nice enough to make a pretty graph:

http://www.realclimate.org/images/model09.jpg

It looks pretty similar to the TAR results. So yes, it appears qualtitatively that they projected it in 2001.







Previous projections weren't as pretty to look at. Fig18 of section F.2.1 of the SAR only places the underlying trend, which is of similar form to IPCC 2001 but doesn't include bounds. They note;

'actual annual to decadal variability would include considerable natural variability'.





http://www.skepticalscience.com/1998-DIY-Statistics.html

This post explains, in simple terms, why 10yr trends are mathematically wrong if you assume the Sun affects Earth's temperature. Current decadal temperatures are in line with IPCC 1995 projections.

Answer 2

The models do not predict when a La Nina or El Nino will occur. So no, climate models will not predicted ENSO-related events years before they happen. And in fact, there were not the measuring tools have become available in the last few years. Models do though predict continued warming as a backdrop against year to year variations. The atmosphere warmed by half a degree in 2009 according to satellite data, but again that's primarily the dissipation of the La Nina and regain of the temperature lost in 2008. You can follow the trends here, if you are interested.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

Answer 3

Actually even the best informed conservative solar scientists expected 2 more gradually reducing sun spot periods before the sun would shut down into a minimum. The key point here is that science still does not know what causes the sun to go into minimums like this. But science does know through research that over the last couple of million years the sun has spent more than 80% of the time in solar minimums like the one we are in now. So as we have been in a solar optimum with a few cool spells for about 13,000 years now it could be very possible the sun is returning to minimum output conditions where it normally spends some 80% of its time and we will all miss the warmth and comfort of the solar optimum we were enjoying up until a couple of years ago.







http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

http://www.examiner.com/x-4648-Atlanta-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d21-Sun-spot-cycle-impacting-global-warming-and-cooling



http://docinthemachine.com/2007/02/15/flawedpeers/

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message307338/pg1

http://m.climaterealists.com/index.php?id=2516

http://minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/2009/01/earth-on-the-brink-of-an-ice-age.html

http://swampie.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/what-the-vostok-ice-core-data-says-about-global-warming-and-more-importantly-cooling/

Answer 4

There are none. In 2008, Jim Hansen predicted a "Super El Nino" that was supposed to break all climate temperature records in 2009. We had the coldest winter on record.



This year, NASA's Climate Prediction Center looked into their crystal ball, opened a goat to read the entrails, peered deeply into the tea leaves and saw that the north mid west temperatures would be warmer than average.



Predictions are not science, it's just guessing. In modern days, the computer just replaces the crystal ball.

Answer 5

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Every computer model predicts it is possible to have some cvery cold days in the winter.



When Florida was having month upon month of record highs, why were you not commenting? Yes, if you ignore all the extremely hot days, the temperatures look cold.



(I'm the poster formerly known as "Paul")