Do you think the world is burning up according to this article? ... or is NASA scaring us with colors?

Question

According to climate science this is what has happened in the past 63 years : http://news.yahoo.com/watch-63-years-climate-change-one-horrifying-gif-154500932.html

Average temps have risen 0.8C at the most. Is this type of color-coding suppose to scare us deniers or something??

Answer 1

I don't know about this animated picture, it looks just like animated picture. Not scary. It represents nothing for sure.



I do have buddy of mine who is working in NASA. They need funds (money)... I guess I've said enough.

Answer 2

Not sure what to say about this. Clearly, it makes sense to use those colors to indicate warming.



BUT, this always goes into how you can lie with figures. Simple things like decreasing the range of the y-axis can make rather small changes look large, whereas increasing the range of the y-axis can make all changes go away. Using scales where small changes get a dark red classification can do the same thing.



Generally speaking, I have no problem with this graph for those who actually research into it. I do. however, have a problem with using it for mass consumption. Most people do not actually look at the scales and get more detailed information. Conversely, I would have a problem with the skeptics showing a graph of temps that had a y-axis from 1 to 100 degrees, as I also think this would be misleading.



For this mass consumption, I think that numbers are far less prone to biasing. I say 0.8 degree in the past 100 years. Perhaps I am not giving enough credit to the general public.

Answer 3

I don't think so, and I don't think it is particularly scary, I think it is interesting. I'd like to have some options as far as breaking it down more and it would be interesting to see and compare with other periods of frequent extreme weather events, or warmer and cooler periods. It would be awesome if they could somehow reconstruct the temperature maps for periods like the Medieval Warm Period, wouldn't it?



It seems obvious that the 'horrifying' headline is another example of media sensationalizing news. I see Trevor identifies the origin of the headline, but I will leave my comment about that as is.

Answer 4

When you have a political point to make then presentation is a major factor. They seldom miss a trick.



This is how it could be done. This is the Central England Temperature Dataset from 1772 onwards. I have fitted a straight line to the data to illustrate the temperature increase. Note this is not anomaly data it is actual temperatures.



I have used the blue = cold and red = hot standard. Note the massive increase in temperatures - if you can!



EDIT Insurance premiums. Some insurance companies are supporting the climate scare. Why? The scare frightens property owners who then don't mind paying higher premiums - which the insurance companies then charge. No change in the risk is necessary for that to work.



EDIT @Some1: Ever heard of strawman arguments? You should look it up. The question was about colours and presentation. I included a different example of colours and presentation. You then decided that it was intended to be a representation of global temperatures and rubbished my answer on that basis. Classic strawman argument. Go away and learn some logic, please.



EDIT Jeff M: Yes, but what is your point?

Answer 5

Why do you believe that 0.8 degrees in 35 years is a small number? That is more than the difference between the average temperatures of Washington DC and Charlotte SC, 450 miles to the south. That is a big change over the entire world in just a few decades. Consider that our current climate is only 5 degrees C warmer than an ice age, and it takes many centuries to change into or out of an ice age.



There have been specific effects of climate change that have major impacts. Warming in the Arctic has been twice as fast as the rest of the world. That has affected the jet stream, which is powered by the difference in temperatures. The jet stream has slowed and that has changed weather patterns throughout northern America. The increased number of Arctic storms dropping far to the south -- like now, and like has been happening over the past few years -- may well be the new normal due to changes in the Arctic.



One foot of sea level rise in 100 years doesn't sound like much either. But the NY subways were flooded for the first time ever because of this, and NYC will likely have to invest $20B to protect itself. There are people in New Jersey whose homes were lost to the storm surge and they now cannot afford to rebuild because insurance companies recognized the increased permanent risk of flooding.



The effects are real. You might see your homeowners insurance rates increase by $1,000 and think that's just inflation, but the insurance companies are charging more in North America specifically because of climate change. You are already paying for it.

Answer 6

I don’t really see what’s scary about that. NASA uses a standardised colour coding system to indicate warming or cooling, the greater the degree of cooling the deeper the blue that is used, similarly the greater the degree of warming the deeper the red. In other words, the colour bar uses the same colours even though the maximum and minimum values differ between graphics.



On the graphic you linked to the deep red indicates 1°C of warming whereas if we look at a graphic showing global temperatures last month then the same deep red is used for warming in excess of 4°C:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=12&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=12&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob



Blue is recognised globally as the colour depicting cold, red depicts warm. It would be a bit silly if NASA used anything else.



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EDIT: RE YOUR ADDED DETAILS



“Why don't they compare it with same color coding on a daily scale which shows the world's 30, 40, and even 50 degree changes”. NASA use the same colour coding for all the graphics regardless of time-scale, if they produced daily images they’d have the same colours on them.



“The article reads "... horrifying ..."!” Your question isn’t about the article. The “horrifying” part was first added when the graphic was reproduced on Jonathan Geller’s Boy Genius Reports website, this is where Yahoo got their news story from, they kept the title. It’s another example of why media sites and personal blogs are unreliable.

Answer 7

They like to manipulate charts to have these effects. We can also see with proxy charts of paleoclimate temperatures, they put a nice red at the end with actual temperatures, to give emphasis to a current rise, and to hide the proxies underneath it. The visual effects of charts matter a great deal to them. See 'hide the decline'.

Answer 8

Have you ever looked at the IPCC reports, or do you get your knowledge of them from something like Fox "News"?



Try the actual source. Or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change

Even the summary versions of the IPCC reports are long, but I do not think you will find the word "inevitable" anywhere in them.

Answer 9

Yes I saw this article this morning. It was featured on Yahoo and it referred to Climate Change. I was born in South Dakota BEFORE the beginning of the graphic display's timeline. There has been absolutely NO CLIMATE CHANGE in the 73 years that I have been on this earth in that portion of South Dakota. The area where I was born is agricultural and highly sensitive to the climate. They are farming the same way as they were 73 years ago. That is completely the opposite of that 'terrifying' display. Rather than saying, "boo," they are saying, "BOO!". Of course, "BOO!" gets them more money and media attention, which obviously that is their goal. They throw away reality and promote hype.



Trevor never has any legitimate input. He is a classic example of Goebbels' principle. Ignore the truth and just spew garbage.

Answer 10

Really, graphicconception? You want to use your own manufactured color graph for Central England to show as a representation for the planet? That has to be the worst science project I have seen you come up with yet! Just how lenient were your teachers? When they asked you to show a representation for an 18 wheeled vehicle did you show them your picture that you took of a unicycle?



Zippie62, what color scheme could have been used that would be less scary to you?



Added****

Really, graphicconception? That is what you are going to go with? Then why did you not leave your graphic up for all to see and then they could determine for themselves just who the straw man is here? And I did address the color and presentation when I asked Zippie62 which color scheme would be less scary to him/her.

Answer 11

Yeah, ask the people in Atlanta how they are burning up. There burning up because they had to abandoned their cars in the snow and ice.

Answer 12

Are you *really* commenting on the colour used to display information? I mean, is this denier science in action? No models. No theories. No design of experiments. Just 'I wish NASA hadn't used red' ...

Answer 13

GraphicConception: Did you happen to see the legend in the top left hand side of the viewing window? Judging by your answer you didn't.

Answer 14

I'm sure they are just trying to scare us. Seriously. It's going to be fine. :)