Question:
Are average temperatures so far this year in the USA up to 10 degrees below normal?
Dana1981
2009-07-05 12:07:10 UTC
In a recent question, a denier claimed "ABC news is reporting that average temperatures so far this year in the USA are up to 10 degrees below normal because of a major shift in the jet stream bringing artic air to the temperate zone. It has been just a little cold all year long."

He was awarded best answer because "...observational data that [he] provided is heard from all over the world..."
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090704063458AA6yOuo&r=w&show_comments=true&pa=FZB6NWHjDG3N56z6v_2wWv2cR.hpAJcBLH9r2577mD7q.1v2bYLPGyP7.TV9Pq4ohTHyMmd4rd.UANBoWEiPrA--&paid=add_comment#openions

Of course, he didn't provide any observational data. All he did was make an unsubstantiated claim about a media report from ABC.

I looked up the data, and according to NOAA, only one state in the lower 48 (North Dakota) has experienced below-average temperatures this year. 13 states have above-average temperatures.
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl

Is there any observational data to substantiate this claim that average temperatures so far this year in the USA up to 10 degrees below normal? Or is this just another case of deniers talking out their butts and buying into unsupported lies that they want to believe?
Nineteen answers:
antarcticice
2009-07-06 04:59:07 UTC
NOAA won't release their June data till ~15 Jul but certainly on the data for the year so far, the claim is fiction as the graphic below shows the areas of the U.S. that were either "near normal" or "above normal" but given that the source of the data in the original question is roy spencer, that he is making such claims is hardly surprising his data is consistently below the rest of the groups studying this.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/may/01_05_2009_DvTempRank_pg.gif
Mikira
2009-07-06 06:02:33 UTC
June 2009 - Golden Valley

DayAverage HighRecord HighRecord LowObserved by DayDailey Variance

1 75 92°F (1939)37°F (1946)72 -3

2 76 93°F (1940)35°F (1946)71 -5

3 76 92°F (1923)34°F (1945)69 -7

4 76 96°F (1968)38°F (1998)77 1

5 77 92°F (1925)40°F (2000)72 -5

6 77 95°F (1987)36°F (1897)53 -24

7 77 95°F (2004)35°F (1998)57 -20

8 77 102°F (1985)36°F (1885)57 -20

9 78 95°F (1976)39°F (1915)66 -12

10 78 99°F (1956)40°F (1877)68 -10

11 78 96°F (1956)40°F (1903)72 -6

12 78 95°F (1956)39°F (1877)72 -6

13 79 100°F (1956)37°F (1969)77 -2

14 79 98°F (1987)44°F (1927)84 5

15 79 94°F (1913)41°F (1989)81 2

16 79 97°F (1933)43°F (1961)77 -2

17 79 97°F (1933)42°F (1960)77 -2

18 80 98°F (1953)39°F (1876)83 3

19 80 100°F (1933)41°F (1950)82 2

20 80 98°F (1933)41°F (1992)86 6

21 80 95°F (1910)39°F (1992)82 2

22 81 98°F (1911)42°F (1960)93 12

23 81 99°F (1937)44°F (1972)95 14

24 81 101°F (1988)44°F (1972)88 7

25 81 98°F (1934)46°F (1957)88 7

26 81 99°F (1931)46°F (1926)89 8

27 81 104°F (1934)44°F (1925)80 -1

28 82 102°F (1931)47°F (1924)77 -5

29 82 102°F (1931)47°F (1924)73 -9

30 82 100°F (1931)47°F (1892)70 -12

-82

Average Daily Variance -2.733333333



~I created this spreadsheet to track the Variance of the average Dailey temperature. I would have liked to have done it for the entire state but I can't find that data, but Golden Valley Minnesota is about 100 miles from the Southern border. So my guess is if I would do this same thing for Duluth, Ely, Moorhead and International Falls it would have been about -5 degrees less for the entire month.



Edit: And so far for the month of July (after putting the average temp in for the rest of the month) it's -0.64516129 less than the average temperature for July.



I get my temperature data from:



http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/monthly/USMN0837?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared



and:



http://www.weather.com/weather/climatology/daily/USMN0837?par=yahoo&site=www.yahoo.com&promo=climo&cm_ven=Yahoo&cm_cat=www.yahoo.com&cm_pla=climopage&cm_ite=CityPage



Edit: I decided to do an average variance for my state for June and I picked six locations three from up North (Duluth, International Falls and Moorhead) the Golden Valley location, and two Southernly ones and the Vairance for June is now: -3.51111



I'd like a few more locations to add at least two more from the Southern part of the state, one from the North and at least four more from Central Minnesota. But it keeps getting colder instead of warmer.
WeatherRusty
2009-07-06 05:30:40 UTC
Why is everyone so concerned with local short term weather variation? It says nothing as to long term global trends.



10 degrees below normal? I don't think so. June at my location in eastern Mass. was a little more than 3F degrees below normal (1971-2000 baseline). Is it possible that somewhere in continental US it was 10 degrees colder than normal for the month of June? Maybe, but certainly not the US as a whole. Of the first 6 months of this year four were above normal and two below normal at my location.



The GISS temperature record and the HadCrut data are not hidden or kept secret. Some people apparently just don't know where to look.
?
2016-04-04 05:21:27 UTC
During the last decade average global temperature has fallen by 0.1C. The IPCC climate models predicted a rise of 0.3C. Since this has happened despite a continued increase in human carbon emissions, it is a clear indication that they do not control our climate. They are a factor, but only one in many. IN 2008, not only the US experienced a record cold winter, but also Saudi Arabia, Iraq and China had 50 or 100 years of record snow. Southern Iran had snow for the first time in any-one's living memory. Jerusalem had two snow falls in February, Greece and Turkey also had record cold temperatures. Meanwhile in Antarctica sea ice was at its highest March level since since Satellite measurements began in 1979, 30% aabove its 30 year average. I could go on to list more examples, but this is enough to get the picture. It is fascinating to to see the global warming lobby in denial about this decade of cooling
andy
2009-07-06 04:27:39 UTC
So it seems like the ABC report may be correct that over all the average temperature in the United States is correct that the average over all 50 States is below normal to some degree. Also, at least in Northeast Ohio we have experienced one of the coolest Junes in a long time.



Posting a deviation set without showing any data behind it is not scientific proof. Also for some reason the link to the noaa.gov site timed out on me so your links don't really proof anything. Also without knowing what the baseline is for the RSS data, it is hard to proof that this is good data or not.
strpenta
2009-07-05 17:57:10 UTC
I live in Texas and my observations are that it is FREAKING HOT!Today it was cloudy so it was at least OK but how anyone can 'observe' that it's cooler is insane! However, I can at least grasp the concept that everyday weather is not a reliable source to determine AGW on. I go with it b/c 1.) there's no reason for climatologists to keep insisting there's a problem, 2.) all arguments by deniers have been debunked and 3.) common sense tells me that the huge increase in population combined with an astronomical increase in energy demand are resulting in climate change.
johnm42us
2009-07-06 09:27:10 UTC
Can't find anything for NY state but here's Central Park



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
Bisshu
2009-07-06 10:44:39 UTC
Go there and watch the viodeo from asker. Also you will get a lot of information in that viodeo.
Bohemian_Garnet_Permaculturalist
2009-07-05 22:11:40 UTC
I can only give you the farmer's perspective. I'm the person who's outside every day, year after year, decade after decade really noticing what is going on in nature and with the wildlife. Most people are lucky to be exposed to nature/weather as they run from their house to their car, to their office building.



The majority of humans live the lions share of their lives indoors. They don't truly observe nature at a close level as I do.



So this past winter the trumpeter swans stayed a full month beyond their normal time. They overwinter here in my part of the Pacific Northwest. A full month. That is a truly significant amount of time. Why? Because winter was so brutal and cold.



There was no reason for them to fly off to the tundra to mate and lay eggs...it was still covered with snow!



Butterflies? They appeared six weeks later in the year than normal. Why? Because butterflies need the temperature to hit 71 (F) before they can start to fly about.



This year, where I use to live in Idaho (still have friends/fellow farmers that live there and keep me informed) are having record cold, and flooding. It's high mountain desert...cold and flooding.



I had a major loss in my garden plants, because a frost came three weeks later than the latest frost is suppose to arrive.



The frogs in our pond did begin mating in February as they always do. However for the first time, in 10 years of living at this farm, the pond froze over several times, and completely silenced the frogs, interupting their mating. Not nearly the number of eggs laid this year.



The wild cherry trees are about two weeks behind schedule this year. Normally the cherry trees are picked clean by the birds, by the 4th of July. The cherries are not ripe enough this year. I've never seen that in 37 years. Not one single time have the wild cherry trees ever been this late.



I have yet to see a single dragonfly on our farm. We have a large pond (about 1/2 an acre) and a creek, and drainage ditch (clean water) that run the entire length of our 40 acre farm, one on either side. So we have a lot of water, and a lot of dragonflies.



We don't use chemicals of any kind on our farm...nothing has changed that way.



The mosquitos are much worse than normal. The fly population is down. Flys like warm.



My livestock, sheep, goats, horses and working farm dogs, held onto their winter coats 6-7 weeks longer than normal. That's about 125 animals that did that, not just a couple.



The neighbors Jersey springer heifers did the same. He has several thousand.



All the animals got their winter coats nearly 3 weeks earlier than normal. That means they grew, and kept their winter coats an exceptionally long time.



The local coyote pack which comes and hunts on my farm in spring and late autumn has exploded to fantastically un-natural sizes. They are 30-40 coyotes strong. Night-time eye shines with high candle power flashlights tell me this is so. A coyote pack should be 2-8 strong. They had a LOT of winter killed animals to eat, since the winter was so severe. Deer didn't fair well.



A cougar has begun to make kills of sheep, and even full grown dairy cows on farms around me. Why? Deer killed off in the extremely cold/snowy winter.



We planted 11 thousand native trees on our farm four years ago, and another 1200 this past Autumn. Same types of native trees, from the same source, planted on the same farm, just four years appart. The trees planted four years ago had much faster growth. The trees planted this past Autumn have been much slower, due to all the cold.



That's over 12 thousand native trees I'm able to clearly see their growth on.



I could go on and on with personal, and acurate observations. It's quiet a bit colder this year, and apparently where I use to live (about a thousand miles from this farm, and 4700+ feet higher in elivation).



~Garnet

Permaculture homesteading/farming over 20 years

Actively watching nature for over 40 years
2009-07-05 18:16:02 UTC
I suppose that it was the imprisonment of Ernest Zundel that first made me 'deny' the holocaust, I mean why kidnap and lock up a peaceful historian just for researching history. The truth doesn't fear investigation. The thing I don't understand is why you want to keep bringing the Jewish holocaust into your agw / carbon is a pollutant nonsense.
2009-07-05 13:51:15 UTC
It's questions and answers like that that makes yahoo put the disclaimer "Yahoo! does not evaluate or guarantee the accuracy of any Yahoo! Answers content" on this site
Weatherman
2009-07-05 15:40:21 UTC
Of course there's no observational data to back it up.



All the data proves the opposite, yet the deniers post links to blogs, and unproven media reports, and claim that they are hard facts.
Typo Man III
2009-07-05 12:45:53 UTC
I wud sa dat cuz smart peepo mak me luk stewpid itz tru dat it wuz at leest 10 degreez coder.

Kant fuul mi.
DaveH
2009-07-05 15:02:10 UTC
“Is there any observational data to substantiate this claim that average temperatures so far this year in the USA up to 10 degrees below normal? Or is this just another case of deniers talking out their butts and buying into unsupported lies that they want to believe?”



Not quite 10 degrees but according to NOAA Central Park, New York was 3.7deg "below normal" (I'm not certain what "normal" means in this particular report).



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX



"PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009



...UNUSUALLY WET AND COOL JUNE FOR CENTRAL PARK...



FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...HERE ARE THE TOP TEN COOLEST AND WETTEST

JUNES ON RECORD SINCE 1869 FOR CENTRAL PARK NY:



COOLEST WETTEST

AVG. TEMP. YEAR INCHES PRECIP. YEAR

64.2 1903 10.27 2003

65.2 1881 10.06 2009

65.7 1916 9.78 1903

66.8 1926/1902 9.30 1972

67.2 1958 8.79 1989

67.3 1927 8.55 2006

67.4 1928 7.76 1887

67.5 2009/1897 7.58 1975

67.7 1878 7.13 1938

67.8 1924 7.05 1871





DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN JUNE...HERE ARE SOME

INTERESTING FACTS TO NOTE:



THIS JUNE IS TIED FOR THE 8TH COOLEST ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE WAS 67.5...3.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH ALSO

OCCURRED IN 1897.



THIS WAS THE COOLEST JUNE SINCE 1958...WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

WAS 67.2 DEGREES.



BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURRED ON 23 OUT OF 30 DAYS THIS

JUNE...OR 75 PERCENT OF THE MONTH.



CENTRAL PARK HAS NOT HIT 90 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THIS YEAR.

THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1996.



CENTRAL PARK HAS NOT HIT 85 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THIS YEAR.

THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1916. THIS HAS ONLY OCCURRED

2 OTHER TIMES...1903 AND 1886.



THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 90 OR GREATER THIS YEAR WAS IN

APRIL. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 90 IN APRIL...BUT NOT IN

JUNE WAS BACK IN 1990.



THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 OR GREATER THIS YEAR WAS IN

MAY. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 IN MAY...BUT NOT IN JUNE

WAS BACK IN 1903. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 IN

APRIL...BUT NOT IN JUNE WAS ALSO BACK IN 1903.



THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE REACHED IN CENTRAL PARK IN THE MONTH OF JUNE

WAS 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 2003.



THE LOW TEMPERATURE DIPPED BELOW 60 DEGREES 11 TIMES IN THE MONTH OF

JUNE. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS IN 2003 WHEN IT OCCURRED 17

TIMES.



IT WAS THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 10.06 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IS 2003 WITH 10.27 INCHES.



THERE WERE 19 DAYS THIS JUNE WHERE THERE WAS AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF

RAINFALL. THIS HAS NEVER OCCURRED IN CENTRAL PARK.



AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAINFALL WAS REPORTED ON 23 OUT OF 30 DAYS THIS

JUNE.”
Dr Yes level 9 since 1999
2009-07-05 15:43:21 UTC
They are just conservative ditto heads repeating whatever they hear. They don't even understand big words like that.
SkyranderMebius
2009-07-05 13:31:57 UTC
Oh, not yet. But the scientist think that it will soon. About a decade.
eric c
2009-07-05 13:16:36 UTC
That is my point exactly. When NOAA says temperatures this year have been some of the warmest ever, the satellite records disagree, one or the other is in error. People here in Europe were saying last month how temperatures should be in the twenties, but they are only in the high teens. How many "you are confusing weather with climate" questions have you answered? (By the way that is observational data. Empirical data is showing what the thermometers say) But somehow you want us to believe that NOAA's temperatures are correct and the satellite data is faulty. I am not buying it, and most of the population is also not buying it either.



EDIT: Spencer talks about the differences between rss and uah:



1) we calculate the anomalies from a wider latitude band, 84S to 84N whereas RSS stops at 70S, and Antarctica was cooler than average in April (so UAH picks it up).



2) The monthly anomaly is relative to the 1979-1998 base period, which for RSS had a colder mean period relative to April 2009 (i.e. their early Aprils in the 1979-1998 period were colder than ours.)



3) RSS is still using a NOAA satellite whose orbit continues to decay, leading to a sizeable diurnal drift adjustment. We are using AMSU data from only NASA’s Aqua satellite, whose orbit is maintained, and so no diurnal drift adjustment is needed. The largest diurnal effects occur during Northern Hemisphere spring, and I personally believe this is the largest contributor to the discrepancy between UAH and RSS.



http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/05/april-2009-global-temperature-update-009-deg-c/



With these type of observations all over the world, I will let the people decide who is right or wrong.



Icecap Notes: The first half of the month was extremely cold and even snowy in south Central Canada and the northern United States. In snowed in North Dakota and in California and northern New England in early June. It was also unusually cold in the southwest - well below the normal (often 10-20 degrees) in places like Palm Springs, CA. In general, the desert southwest was unusually mild. Phoenix had 15 straight days with highs below 100F, the first time in June since 1913.



In contrast feeding off the dry soils from two years of La Nina, June, especially the second half was very hot in the southern plains and the heat expanded north and east a bit after mid-month before being suppressed again by months end.



In the northeast, the month was unusually cold, cloudy and wet. In Boston it was 4.7F below normal in a tie for 6th coldest June (with 1982) in 138 years of record keeping, all the other years were before 1916. It was just short of two standard deviations colder then normal. The NWS spot checked the average maximum temp at Boston for the month and it appears this is the second coldest average high temp since 1872. 1903 is the record. A trace or more of rain fell on 22 days of the month. Measurable (0.01 inches or more) occurred on 16 days just short of the record of 18 set in 1942.



At Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA, just southwest of Boston, the month of June had between 26 and 27% of the possible bright sunshine. Normal for June is 55% and the gloomiest June in 1903 had just 25% of the possible sunshine. Second place had been June, 1998, with 36%. So, this month has taken over 2nd place, not an enviable distinction for vacationers. So little sunshine and so much cool temperatures that we have heard some reports that swamp maples in parts of Maine showing fall colors!



New York City’s Central Park was also cool, cloudy and wet. The month averaged 3.7F below normal and tied with 1897 as the 8th coldest since 1869 (151 years). It rained in 23 days of the month and ended up as the second wettest June ever falling short of 1927. Recall Joe Romm of Climate Progress had blamed the rains at the US Open on global warming and chuckled the heat waves would make the climate debate in DC all that much more exciting.



The preliminary June monthly anomaly is shown below (CPC).



http://icecap.us/images/uploads/June09.jpg



In other parts of the world, Southern Brazil had one the coldest June’s in decades and New Zealand has had unusual cold and snow again this year after a banner year there and in the mounatins of southern Australia last year. The Mt. Lyford Ski Area is experiencing some of the best early snow it�s ever seen. With a current 135cm average base on the slopes along with 50cm of snow fall earlier this week and an additional 5cm of windblown powder last night, ski area operator Hamish Simpson says there are “plenty of fresh tracks to be had”. “We have got the best early season snow in years,” said Mr Simpson. “Even better than last year - wall to wall white! The Terako rope has 100% cover with plenty of fresh tracks to be had.



http://www.icecap.us/
Richard
2009-07-05 12:40:06 UTC
Oh you mean like Mann, or the IPCC, who refused and refuse to release data so we can if there is really is a problem?



Like you preach, local temperate doesn't indicate global temperate, so why not push for all the data to be released so us "deniers" can check it out, or are you afraid that we might find its all a fraud?



edit



six thumbs down for wanting to see the data, what is everyone afraid of?



I see we're up to nine (now 17) people afraid to show the data, remember if your hypothesis is sound, and your data collection is sound, if your assumptions are sound then you WELCOME skeptics, if not then call them deniers and say how little they care and threaten them and their jobs.



edit again



to the 14 (and counting) people who gave me a thumbs down how can you or anyone make a decision without seeing the data and knowing how it was collected? What? You just want to take someone's word for it? All we want is to see the data and see how it was collected, if I said I have a car that got a 1,000 per gallon would you just take my word for it or would you want proof. Right now the IPCC is saying there is AGW and just take our word for it.
J S
2009-07-05 13:06:46 UTC
No.


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