Is the Arctic still going to be "ice free" this Summer?

Question

Last June, we had scientists and the media reporting that the Arctic could be "ice free" by September.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/27/north.pole.melting/index.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/06/27/eaice127.xml
http://www.informify.com/top-stories/46-natural-world/274-north-pole-ice-may-melt-by-september-accelerate-global-warming

Currently, the Arctic appears to have more ice than last year and this time of year is when the Arctic has melted as much as it is going to before things start freezing up again.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=06&fy=2007&sm=09&sd=06&sy=2008

Was that just another failed prediction by environmental scientists or is this another case media sensationalism.

Answer 1

September isn't over yet, maybe the whole ice cap will just suddenly melt like an icecream on a hot day.



Then again, maybe alarmism is way better for a scientists career than objectivity.

Answer 2

Using the phrase "scientists" is a little misleading when all three links relate to the comments of one scientist Mark Serreze and what appear to be not predictions but off the cuff comments talking about a 50/50 office bet about what may happen this summer.



And a comparison of ice to years like 2002, 2003 or 2004 show a more accurate picture of the continuing melt of the Arctic

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=06&fy=2002&sm=09&sd=06&sy=2008

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=06&fy=2003&sm=09&sd=06&sy=2008

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=06&fy=2004&sm=09&sd=06&sy=2008

Answer 3

NO ! Once again , here are the comparisons .



http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/bist/bist.pl?annot=1&legend=1&scale=100&tab_cols=2&tab_rows=2&config=seaice_index&submit=Refresh&mo0=08&hemis0=N&img0=extn&mo1=08&hemis1=N&img1=conc&year0=2008&year1=2007&.cgifields=no_panel



Roughly 13% more ice than this time last year and with the melting season almost over , plenty of ice to go around and NO RECORDS BROKEN (Dana) . I guess Dailytech was right after all . Some people live in the world of predictions , I live in a world of results !

Answer 4

The media loves hype and sensationalism, but even environmentalists are known to prefer their opinions over others'. It appears that no matter what damage humans are trying to do, nature still has a leg up. Another theory is that melting ice sheets are increasing volcanic activity - which in turn will lead to global cooling and thus a return of nordic ice. It's too early to tell if this is part of a normal cycle. What we do know is that human activity is impacting the environment not seen before. We should reduce the number of pollutants emitted into it if only to preserve the wildlife we like to watch on TV.

Answer 5

Probably not, but there is still a chance that it will be the least ice on record. The "scientists" that your links refer to all seem to be one guy, providing a bunch of links doesn't make him into a whole army of scientists, and even he was only giving even odds that it would be ice free this year, so I hardly see this as "another failed prediction by environmental scientists."



There is definitely some media sensationalism going on.

Answer 6

No, it won't be ice free. It still could break the record for greatest ice melt, but at this point I would guess that it will fall slightly short of last year's record.



http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png



It's important to note that it's not like scientists were saying "the Arctic will be ice free this summer", as you appear to be suggesting. That's simply false. Some scientists said "it might be", and the predictions I saw had less than 50% of scientists predicting it would break last year's record.



Regardless, the long-term trend is obvious. It's just a matter of time before the Artic is ice free, and it will likely happen within 5 years.



http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/n_plot.html

Answer 7

The melting in the arctic continued to accelerate this year with huge losses in ice shelves that have persisted for thousands of years:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/09/04/eaice104.xml



And note that your links all predicted we "might" see an ice free summer, it's not like it was a sure thing. So there was no failure, and what the media says has no bearing on reality or science.

Answer 8

The major problem is their predictions are all keyed to Co2 levels and thus are slanted well above real world numbers. Right now their predicted temperatures are running about .5C ahead of real world temperatures because of this disconnect between religious fervor and cold hard facts.

Answer 9

It was another scare tactic to raise more cash quickly. I don't know if it worked for them but that's what that lie was about. Hopefully people are learning that it's all a scam.

Answer 10

No.



This guy was trying to Kayak to the North Pole to demonstrate Global Warming. He got stuck at 80deg N and had to give up.

http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=105384431693060155128.0004559ae4a5303345bd7&ll=78.061989,0.175781&spn=13.627552,78.75&t=h&z=4



Here is the North Pole webcam http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/WebCam1.html ... still frozen.



The ice mass of Antarctica is increasing.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/308/5730/1898

http://journals.royalsociety.org/content/38315t2244r5w3m4/?p=51a3582c8c2f46b19556a634ddb1ccc2&pi=1



Global Ice mass is increasing... sea levels are falling.

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.txt

Answer 11

This summer is almost over, so no. And this winter, which hasn't started yet, will bring back the ice sheets.

Answer 12

No --- this won't happen this year.

Answer 13

yes.it is.